Kieran O'Leary, from the firm, pointed to the low turnout of 59.7% for skewing the data and affecting its model. He said there were anecdotal reports of a higher decline in turnout among young voters than among older voters. He added it was also possible the decline was more severe in urban areas than in rural areas.

Ireland has proved a partial exception to the anti-incumbent mood in elections around the world. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which have dominated Irish politics for a century, remain in the driving seat, though their combined share of the vote has declined to just over 40%.

However, no one party fielded enough candidates to win the majority in the Irish General Election 2024, paving the way for another coalition Government - the outgoing Dáil Éireann, elected in 2020, saw Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and The Green Party come together in a coalition.

The majority of seats in the Irish parliament have been filled, with the Fianna Fáil party leading a tight three-way battle in the country's general election. With all 43 constituencies' initial counts in, first preference percentage share for the largest three parties was: Fianna Fáil 21.9%, Fine Gael 20.8%, Sinn Féin 19.0%.

Voters across Ireland cast their ballots in the country’s general election on 29 November. First preference vote shares indicated that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are set to continue their coalition as support for Sinn Féin declines.

The polls are set to open for the Irish general election. Polling stations will be open between 07:00 and 22:00 local time on Friday to allow voters to choose representatives to serve as Teachtaí Dála (TDs) in the Dáil, the lower house of the Oireachtas (Ireland's parliament).

Ireland is heading for a return of the coalition government led by Prime Minister Simon Harris’s Fine Gael party and Fianna Fail, as voters bucked a recent international trend of ousting incumbent parties.

Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has said it is "too close to call" how many seats his party will win in the Irish general election. Exit polls suggest a close contest between the three major parties.