The immediate catalyst for the no-confidence motion was Barnier's decision to invoke a constitutional mechanism to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval. This maneuver, intended to expedite the budgetary process amid deep political divisions, was perceived by opposition parties as undemocratic, prompting a unified response.

Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet Asset Management, says the likelihood that French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government will remain in place has "diminished quite substantially."