Entering 2025, models from forecasting companies like Trading Economics anticipate inflation rates between 2.4% and 2.9% between the end of 2024 and the start of 2026. Unfortunately, actually predicting inflation can be difficult, as rates can be affected by a variety of factors, including political climates and supply-chain interruptions.

The dynamic is reflected in the chart below, which shows low-income inflation increases outpacing those for the other four quintiles since 2006, and over a nearer-term timeframe. From the end of 2005 through June 2024 — the latest available data — the lowest-income cohort saw prices increase 64%,

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the cost of living continues to outpace earnings, leaving many Americans struggling to make ends meet.

And all this productivity is why wage growth keeps beating inflation, said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan. “Real wage growth has to come from productivity growth. Because we’re doing more with less, we get more in the end,” she said.

The Consumer Price Index report for January is expected to show broadly unchanged annual inflation according to nowcasts. That may be broadly good news for the Fed.

Economists like me rely on data from federal data collection agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). They provide critical data on

The latest inflation report slashed the risk that the Fed could go back to hiking interest rates this year, Wall Street strategists say.

Nationals Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie says inflation in Australia has been “higher for longer” than it needs to be against all comparable nations.

The non-partisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League predicts the 2026 COLA will be 2.1%, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI-W, the index used to calculate the annual increase. December’s CPI-W came in at 2.8%. Getty Images

Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance poll found that, in 2024, respondents named inflation as the most important financial problem they face today. And despite some optimism that the economy will soon improve, a 2025 Allianz Life study found that 60% of Americans believe inflation will get worse this year.

Investors and many economists still expect the Fed to reduce interest rates later this year, but the watchword for policymakers for now may be caution.